Political predictions

Back in 2002, a lot of people (including Dick Cheney) who could have predicted some of the negative consequences of invading Iraq and overthrowing Saddam. Heck, I’m nobody special, and even I could predict that Bush’s little crusade would have the following results, among others:

  • The peace would be more difficult to win than the war
  • The President’s popularity would plummet
  • Republicans would lose the support of the middle-grounders, and consequently control of the government
  • Conservative Christianity, as exemplified by our godly President, would become more questionable in the eyes of the general public
  • Once embroiled in Iraq, the consequences of leaving would be bad enough that we would need to stay regardless of the drain on American lives and resources
  • Many Arabs would see America as more of an imperialist oppressor than a benign liberator
  • Fundamentalist Islamic groups would find it easier to recruit new members (and new insurgents/terrorists)

And so on. The war in Iraq has continually borne out my expectations, and I only wish I’d had this blog back then so I could have a record of how thoroughly predictible the current state of affairs was. But it’s not too late for my predictions for the rest of the war:

  1. The Republicans in general and the Bush administration in particular will never admit that invading Iraq was a bad idea. Instead, they’ll continue to claim that the situation is under control and that victory is just around the corner.
  2. The Republicans in general and the Bush administration in particular will never quite manage to define what “victory” would be.
  3. Because the consequences of pulling out are bound to be disastrous, the Bush administration will never willingly bring our troops home from Iraq, but will instead insist that victory is just around the corner, and if we just stay the course, everything will turn out right.
  4. Americans will stop supporting the war, and begin to demand a pullout.
  5. Democrats will sense a political opportunity, and insist on withdrawing US troops from Iraq. Republicans will put up a token resistance, but allow the Democrats to win.
  6. The situation in Iraq will deteriorate, over the course of months, weeks, or even days, into open civil war, with a good chance of external interventions by Iran and/or Syria.
  7. With the Middle East in turmoil, the price of gasoline will go up significantly.
  8. The Republicans will blame everything on the Democrats, claiming that if we had just stayed the course a little while longer, we would have seen that victory was just around the corner, as they had always claimed.
  9. Far too many people will believe the Republicans (again), and put them back in power in Congress.
  10. Just to go out on a limb, my 10th prediction is that whoever emerges as the new dictator of Iraq will be heralded as the “resurrection” of Saddam, and some Christian eschatologists will identify him as the fulfillment of Revelation 13:3.

Let’s see how well this “prophecy” pans out.

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